Markets see low chance of Iran blockade lifting

Analysts and traders on the prediction market Polymarket are forecasting that President Donald Trump is unlikely to end the U.S. naval blockade on Iran's coastal areas in the near term. The market currently gives only a 35% chance that the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted by the end of April, a drop of 15 percentage points. This reflects a growing consensus among observers that the blockade, which has halted all Iranian sea trade, will persist despite Trump's recent public comments calling the war a lost cause.