BrazilBrazil
Lula, Bolsonaro tied in Brazil election poll
Wednesday, 15 April 2026 at 11:36 UTC · 1 source
A Quaest poll commissioned by brokerage Genial shows Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in a potential runoff for October's general election. The challenger, Bolsonaro, leads Lula for the first time within the survey's margin of error, indicating a tightening race. The poll was released on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, as Brazil approaches its upcoming election.
Sources
Prediction Markets
Polymarket↗
Brazil Presidential ElectionFlávio BolsonaroN
42%
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaN
39%
Renan SantosN
7%
Fernando HaddadN
5%
Camilo SantanaN
3%
Ronaldo CaiadoN
2%
Romeu ZemaN
1%
Jair BolsonaroN
1%
+7 more outcomes on Polymarket
Polymarket↗
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceFlávio BolsonaroY
65%
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaN
16%
Renan SantosN
7%
Fernando HaddadN
6%
Camilo SantanaN
2%
Ronaldo CaiadoN
2%
Romeu ZemaN
1%
Michelle BolsonaroN
1%
+7 more outcomes on Polymarket
Polymarket↗
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceRonaldo CaiadoN
43%
Renan SantosN
34%
Romeu ZemaN
5%
Fernando HaddadN
4%
Flávio BolsonaroN
3%
Ratinho JúniorN
3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaN
2%
Jair BolsonaroN
1%
+7 more outcomes on Polymarket
Polymarket↗
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryLula da Silva <5%N
39%
Lula da Silva 5-10%N
21%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%N
19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%N
9%
Lula da Silva 15%+N
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+N
7%
Renan Santos VictoryN
5%
OtherN
4%
+3 more outcomes on Polymarket
Polymarket↗
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?Flavio BolsonaroY
88%
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaY
79%
Fernando HaddadN
12%
Tarcisio de FrietasN
5%
Michelle BolsonaroN
4%
Jair BolsonaroN
3%
Cycle: Wednesday, 15 April 2026 at 11:36 UTC · First reported: 5h ago